Since it seems I've drifted away from my original intent of ceaselessly mocking Robinson Cano:
Cano's OBP is currently .351, which not only isn't that great, it's only 31 points above his batting average.
(Robinson Cano sucks.)
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Gambler's fallacy
If you flip a coin ten times, there is a good chance it will come up heads all ten times. Does this mean the coin is rigged? Probably no, and this is just a case of small sample size. Flip that coin 100 times, and you'll no doubt find that the coin comes up heads just about as many times as it does tails. Flip it 1,000 times, and the ratio of heads to tails should get even closer to 1:1. This is basically the Gambler's fallacy at its finest, and it seems the baseball world falls prey to it far too often. If we are to rise above it, however, it should come as no surprise, for instance, that the Yankees are in first place and the Royals are under .500 right now. Anomalies exist over a small sample size, but everything will eventually tend towards the expected result.
So on that note...
What the hell is up with Juan Pierre and when is it going to stop? Excluding tonight's game, Pierre currently has an EqA of .349. No, I am not making that up. Juan Pierre, the man who's never had an EqA of above .276, and hasn't been above league average (.260) since 2004, is putting up Albert Pujols-like numbers (career EqA of .345). Logic tells us that he'll eventually go back to being an exceptionally mediocre baseball player, but, for now, let's all bask in the supreme oddity of his current production.
So on that note...
What the hell is up with Juan Pierre and when is it going to stop? Excluding tonight's game, Pierre currently has an EqA of .349. No, I am not making that up. Juan Pierre, the man who's never had an EqA of above .276, and hasn't been above league average (.260) since 2004, is putting up Albert Pujols-like numbers (career EqA of .345). Logic tells us that he'll eventually go back to being an exceptionally mediocre baseball player, but, for now, let's all bask in the supreme oddity of his current production.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Juan Pierre is a Hall of Famer
I've been away from baseball for a bit, and I'm sure all zero of the people that read my blog have been disappointed. Have no fear, however. I'm back and trying to catch up on the things I've missed. So I'd like to take a moment to touch on this whole Manny Ramirez thing. Ignoring the larger issue of what this means for baseball's image and Manny's legacy, it's a serious blow to a Dodger's team that has essentially built its lineup around Ramirez. They're facing 50 games without their most prolific hitter and there's no obvious stand-in.
Or is there?
Steve Phillips knows the answer to the Dodgers' problem. And it's Juan Pierre.
Ramirez clearly makes the Dodgers a deeper and stronger lineup. But his replacement, Juan Pierre, is a proven major leaguer who, although he is different from Manny, can still be a major force offensively. Remember, Pierre is hungry for playing time and has waited patiently for an opportunity to play. Now that it has arrived, look for him to explode.
This could be a brilliant piece of satire, except I'm pretty sure Steve is serious. This is the same man who thought it was a good idea to sign Mo Vaughn when he was GM of the Mets. Getting back to the point at hand, Juan Pierre is not a major force offensively, unless you count how much he sucks. He has one season with an OPS+ above 100 and that was in 2003. In fact, his OPS+ has declined every year since that point, down to the 73 he posted last year. You know who had a higher OPS+ last year? David Eckstein. Every inch of his 5'6" frame is packed with mediocrity, and Juan Pierre was WORSE offensively. The only way this can good for the Dodgers is if Pierre literally explodes, in which case they can put Xavier Paul in there for good. Even if he isn't as "good" as Juan Pierre, at least he's young and has time to develop.
There's no doubt the Dodgers' offense will be different, but it should still be highly productive. I don't have any doubt that on July 3, when Manny returns, the team will still be in first place and their young players will be even more confident in their own abilities.
WHAT? Does Steve Phillips have magical powers? How can he guarantee this? This...just doesn't make sense, unless Steve is some being from a parallel universe in which Juan Pierre is Hall of Fame caliber outfielder. (Random fact: Micah Owings had a higher OPS+ than Juan Pierre last year. Owings is a pitcher.)
Without Ramirez batting third in the order, expect manager Joe Torre to experiment a little bit before settling on a regular lineup. With the way second baseman (and 2-hitter) Orlando Hudson is swinging the bat, he certainly could hit in the third spot. Leadoff man Rafael Furcal could drop to second, behind Pierre in the top spot. Torre would also have the option of moving Ethier to the No. 3 spot, with Kemp hitting fourth.
The only way Juan Pierre should be batting lead-off in this lineup is if Joe Torre suffering from age-onset dementia. Ignoring the less-than-Jason Varitek-OPS+-in-2008, the lead-off hitter is supposed to be someone who gets on base. You know who doesn't get on base much? Juan Pierre. He hasn't had an OBP over .350 since 2004. In 2008, he got on base at a .327 clip. You know who had an OBP higher than that? Andre Ethier, Russel Martin, Jeff Kent, James Loney, Matt Kempt and Blake DeWitt. (The most frequent 2 - 7 hitters for the Dodgers in 2008. The only reason why this list doesn't extend to the 2 - 8 hitters is the most common 8th hitter for the team in 2008 was none other than Angel Berroa.) Juan Pierre has no business batting lead-off. He should barely be batting anywhere, for that matter. Out of 204 players with 400 at bats last year, Juan Pierre ranked 179th in VORP. This is the player who is going to keep the Dodgers offense going. Congrats, Steve Phillips, for writing what could be the most retarded thing I've read about this whole Manny nonsense. (And I read Bill Plaschke too.)
Or is there?
Steve Phillips knows the answer to the Dodgers' problem. And it's Juan Pierre.
Ramirez clearly makes the Dodgers a deeper and stronger lineup. But his replacement, Juan Pierre, is a proven major leaguer who, although he is different from Manny, can still be a major force offensively. Remember, Pierre is hungry for playing time and has waited patiently for an opportunity to play. Now that it has arrived, look for him to explode.
This could be a brilliant piece of satire, except I'm pretty sure Steve is serious. This is the same man who thought it was a good idea to sign Mo Vaughn when he was GM of the Mets. Getting back to the point at hand, Juan Pierre is not a major force offensively, unless you count how much he sucks. He has one season with an OPS+ above 100 and that was in 2003. In fact, his OPS+ has declined every year since that point, down to the 73 he posted last year. You know who had a higher OPS+ last year? David Eckstein. Every inch of his 5'6" frame is packed with mediocrity, and Juan Pierre was WORSE offensively. The only way this can good for the Dodgers is if Pierre literally explodes, in which case they can put Xavier Paul in there for good. Even if he isn't as "good" as Juan Pierre, at least he's young and has time to develop.
There's no doubt the Dodgers' offense will be different, but it should still be highly productive. I don't have any doubt that on July 3, when Manny returns, the team will still be in first place and their young players will be even more confident in their own abilities.
WHAT? Does Steve Phillips have magical powers? How can he guarantee this? This...just doesn't make sense, unless Steve is some being from a parallel universe in which Juan Pierre is Hall of Fame caliber outfielder. (Random fact: Micah Owings had a higher OPS+ than Juan Pierre last year. Owings is a pitcher.)
Without Ramirez batting third in the order, expect manager Joe Torre to experiment a little bit before settling on a regular lineup. With the way second baseman (and 2-hitter) Orlando Hudson is swinging the bat, he certainly could hit in the third spot. Leadoff man Rafael Furcal could drop to second, behind Pierre in the top spot. Torre would also have the option of moving Ethier to the No. 3 spot, with Kemp hitting fourth.
The only way Juan Pierre should be batting lead-off in this lineup is if Joe Torre suffering from age-onset dementia. Ignoring the less-than-Jason Varitek-OPS+-in-2008, the lead-off hitter is supposed to be someone who gets on base. You know who doesn't get on base much? Juan Pierre. He hasn't had an OBP over .350 since 2004. In 2008, he got on base at a .327 clip. You know who had an OBP higher than that? Andre Ethier, Russel Martin, Jeff Kent, James Loney, Matt Kempt and Blake DeWitt. (The most frequent 2 - 7 hitters for the Dodgers in 2008. The only reason why this list doesn't extend to the 2 - 8 hitters is the most common 8th hitter for the team in 2008 was none other than Angel Berroa.) Juan Pierre has no business batting lead-off. He should barely be batting anywhere, for that matter. Out of 204 players with 400 at bats last year, Juan Pierre ranked 179th in VORP. This is the player who is going to keep the Dodgers offense going. Congrats, Steve Phillips, for writing what could be the most retarded thing I've read about this whole Manny nonsense. (And I read Bill Plaschke too.)
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